A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
